Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Chichester, England New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Van der Heijden argues organizations need to face up to uncertain possible futures. In this book, he argues leaders need to develop organizational processes that foster success. Organizations are characterized as feedback-looped, complex adaptive systems, driven by the “conversations” and interactions of individuals that comprise them. Though organizational systems may be complex and chaotic, processes that acknowledge this characteristic of organizations may allow the organization to be perceived as more-deterministic in the long-run.
Scenario planning, he proposes, is a tool that allows leaders to redefine the contexts and processes that drive decision making in their organizations though adaptive organizational learning. Scenario planning allows individuals to see how events and forces in an organization may fit in patterns and how they might ultimately be resolved.